Sentiment Stabilizes

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Market Update

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Summary

Sentiment Stabilizes: Business Outlook Finds Its Footing Amid Trade Turbulence

Canadian business sentiment appears to have steadied in Q2 2025 following a sharp deterioration in the previous quarter, as outlined in RBC Economics’ latest Forward Guidance.

The Bank of Canada’s upcoming Business Outlook Survey is expected to reflect early signs of improvement in business expectations for sales, hiring, and input prices—particularly as trade tensions eased and Canada was exempted from recent U.S. tariffs.

Supporting data, including steadier job postings and improving confidence in small business surveys, suggest the economy is holding up better than feared. However, resilience in consumer spending continues to underpin stubborn inflation, which, along with potential fiscal stimulus, raises the bar for any further interest rate cuts by the Bank of Canada this year.

Sectors exposed to trade, like manufacturing, may remain cautious, while consumer-facing industries are expected to show more optimism.

⏱ TLDR: After a lot of shock and awe, we seem to be getting back to a new normal.

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Key Takeaways 💡

1. 🇨🇦 Business confidence is rebounding in Q2, with trade-exemptions and domestic demand supporting stabilization.

2. 📉 Persistent inflation and fiscal stimulus expectations suggest the Bank of Canada is unlikely to cut interest rates further in 2025.

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Canadian stocks over the last 30 days (end June - July 2025)

Markets rallied strongly in July, with the TSX surging across most sectors. Shopify, Brookfield, and CIBC led the charge, while energy names like CNQ and SU dragged slightly. Investor optimism seems to be holding, but underlying inflation and rate concerns linger. A cautiously bullish mood continues as we head deeper into Q3.

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