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Welcome to the October edition of the Wealth Awesome newsletter. Thank you to the 20,000+ 🇨🇦 subscribers who join us today!

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Market Update

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Summary

From Green to Grit: Energy’s Fall Turns the TSX Cautious

All eyes are on Canada’s September inflation and retail data as the Bank of Canada weighs another potential rate cut on October 29.

With headline CPI expected to rise to 2.3% and core inflation holding near 3%, policymakers are balancing progress toward their 2% target against signs of underlying price stickiness.

Business sentiment appears to be stabilizing, while consumer spending remains firm after a summer slowdown.

Despite a stronger September jobs report, RBC Economics expects another 25-basis-point cut this month as the central bank cautiously nudges policy toward supporting slower growth without reigniting inflation.

TLDR: BOC has a balancing act at the moment, but signs are pointing in the right direction.

Key Takeaways 💡

1. Data-driven decisions: Inflation remains above target, but steady consumer spending and softer retail trends keep a rate cut on the table.

2. Confidence returning: Business optimism and small business confidence are showing signs of recovery as trade tensions ease.

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Canadian stocks over the last 30 days (end September - October 2025)

Markets softened in October, with broad weakness across the TSX driven by energy and materials. Big names like Franco-Nevada (-10.02%), Suncor (-8.64%), Imperial Oil (-8.01%), and Canadian Natural Resources (-6.85%) dragged the index lower.

Financials were mixed—BN (-6.78%) and BMO (-3.34%) slipped, while TD (+1.36%) and CM (+0.49%) edged up modestly. Tech showed resilience, with Shopify (+3.51%) leading gains, and industrials like CNI (+3.24%) providing support.

Overall, the market painted a cautious picture—green pockets of strength offset by widespread red as investors remain wary of inflation and interest rate signals.

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Thats it for this month!

The Wealth Awesome Team

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