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Flatlined, But Not Frozen: Canada’s Economy Keeps a Pulse
Wealth Awesome August Newsletter
Qayyum Rajan & Shayaan Rajan
August 28, 2025
In partnership with
Welcome to the August edition of the Wealth Awesome newsletter. Thank you to the 17,000+ 🇨🇦 subscribers who join us today!
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Summary
Flatlined, But Not Frozen: Canada’s Economy Keeps a Pulse
Canadian travel to the U.S. has taken a nosedive in early 2025, with air and land return trips plunging by 20% and 26% respectively.
Canada’s economy flatlined in Q2 2025, with GDP showing no growth following a strong Q1—yet the outcome was less grim than feared.
While international trade disruptions led to a dramatic 31% annualized plunge in exports, household spending, housing activity, and service sector growth held firm, cushioning the blow.
A one-time oil machinery import also softened the investment slowdown.
Despite trade uncertainty, domestic demand continues to provide a stabilizing base, and with signs of life in June retail and oil production, a modest rebound may be underway.
⏱️ TLDR: Things are slow, but not as slow as expected, some signs of life ahead for our economy
Key Takeaways 💡
1. Energy and services show strength: A rebound in oil output and solid retail gains in June hint at an upward tilt heading into Q3.
2. Households to the rescue: Consumer spending and housing activity remained resilient, offsetting deep trade-related shocks.
Canadian stocks over the last 30 days (end July - August 2025)
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Markets were mixed over the past month, with sharp sector divergences dominating the TSX landscape. Shopify (+12.94%), AEM (+7.70%), and TRP (+7.47%) delivered strong gains, helping lift sentiment, while heavyweights like Restaurant Brands (-9.82%), Thomson Reuters (-13.16%), and Lululemon (-7.74%) dragged down overall performance.
Financials remained somewhat resilient, with gains in names like CM (+8.34%) and ENB (+5.85%) helping offset weakness in others like BN (-3.99%) and SLF (-7.03%). The overall tone suggests selective optimism, but volatility remains a theme as macro and trade pressures continue to filter through the markets.
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Thats it for this month!
The Wealth Awesome Team
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