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Stock: Waste Connections (TSX: WCN)
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Quick take: Defensive moat + steady pricing + M&A flywheel . Shares eased recently, but analysts still see upside and dividend growth ticking along. Great “sleep-at-night” compounding story.
Major Developments (this week & very recent)
Market performance: Flat-to-soft week (+0.2% over 5 days) while the market rose—setting up a more attractive entry.
Quarter wrapped: Last reported quarter 09/30/25; next set of results due 02/11/26—watch price/mix, volumes, and margin cadence.
Dividend cadence: Upcoming ex-dividend: 11/05/25; firm’s multi-year streak of double-digit dividend growth continues.
Key Metrics (as of Monday’s close)
Metric | Value |
|---|---|
Price | $244.72 |
Weekly Move (5-day) | +0.2% |
Market Cap | US$44.9B |
P/E (TTM) | 72.7 |
Forward P/E | 43.1 |
52-Week Range | $236.00 – $284.73 |
YTD Return | −0.3% |
Dividend Yield (fwd) | ~0.8% |
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Analyst Insights
Item | Detail |
|---|---|
Consensus Rating | STRONG BUY |
Average Target Price | $291.33 |
Upside Potential | +19.05% vs $244.72 |
Breakdown (22 analysts) | Strong Buy: 17 • Buy: 2 • Hold: 3 • Sell: 0 • Strong Sell: 0 |
Read: Street remains firmly bullish—visibility on pricing and tuck-in M&A keeps the long-term model durable, even with a premium multiple.
Recent/Notable Items
Outlook steady: Post-quarter, estimates for FY25/FY26 were tweaked but remain broadly stable; next catalyst is Feb 11, 2026 earnings.
Dividend growth on track: Ex-div Nov 5, 2025; five-year dividend CAGR in the low double digits underscores shareholder return focus.
Resilience vs. beta: Low 1-yr beta (0.25) continues to make WCN a defensive compounder during choppier markets.
Growth Indicators
Growth Metric | Waste Connections |
|---|---|
Sales Growth (Next Year) | +5.8% |
EPS Growth (Next Year) | +10.6% |
5-yr EPS Growth Estimate | +6.5% |
Context: Growth is driven by price, disci
Quality, Value & Financials (why it works long-term)
Quality: Gross margin 42.1%, operating 18.8%—strong for a capital-heavy service.
Cash generation: P/FCF 36.6 (rich but consistent with defensive, visible FCF).
Balance sheet: D/E 1.1, interest coverage 3.4×—manageable within the sector’s stable cash flows.
Moat: Integrated footprint (landfills + transfer + recycling) supports pricing power and sticky local share.
Technical & Momentum
RSI: 57.3 (neutral-positive)
Price vs 52-wk high: 86% (room to run)
Beta (1-yr): 0.25 (low volatility)
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Aspect | Snapshot |
|---|---|
Thesis | Defensive waste operator with pricing power, steady growth, and dividend CAGR |
Catalysts | Feb 11 earnings; pricing/mix updates; tuck-in M&A |
Risks | Multiple is premium; leverage; macro volume softness |
Best For | Long-term, low-beta dividend growth portfolios |
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The Wealth Awesome Team